Las Vegas Craps Odds. Most craps tables on the Las Vegas Strip offer 3/4/5 times odds. This means that a player can wager three times the flat bet on a 4 and 10, four times on a five and 9, and five times on a six and eight. The maximum win with odds on any of these numbers equals six times the flat bet. Meanwhile, Trump's 36.2% implied probability with +150 odds is the worst it's been this cycle, falling from 40.5% and +125 over the past two weeks. June 8 After a second straight weekend of protests in the wake of George Floyd's death, CNN released a new poll showing that only 41% of the public supports Donald Trump compared to the 55%. Infographics Prove That Roulette Is The Worst Bet In Vegas. If you bet on a single number in roulette, your odds of winning are 37:1. Meanwhile, your potential payout is only 35:1. Meanwhile, Trump's 36.2% implied probability with +150 odds is the worst it's been this cycle, falling from 40.5% and +125 over the past two weeks. June 8 After a second straight weekend of protests in the wake of George Floyd's death, CNN released a new poll showing that only 41% of the public supports Donald Trump compared to the 55%.
With 11-seed Loyola-Chicago just missing becoming the biggest NCAA Tournament longshot to win a title, it got us as TheLines thinking: 'Well, who are the biggest longshots in sports betting history?'
Not all longshots are created equal. Some of these selections were no-brainers, etched in gambling lore forever. Others were a little more under-the-radar, but still bore note-worthy significance.
10. 2011 St. Louis Cardinals at 999-1
With 15 games left in the 2011 season, the St. Louis Cardinals were 4 ½ games behind the Atlanta Braves for the National League wild card spot. Las Vegas sportsbooks had them listed at 999-1 to win the World Series. Then Atlanta collapsed, the Cards went 11-4 in their final 15, and won the World Series over the Texas Rangers. While it takes a lot to make baseball exciting and interesting, a 999-1 run does the job.
9. 1999 St. Louis Rams 300-1 to win Super Bowl
Let's keep the list in St. Louis. While some would think that the 2001 Patriots would've been the worst pre-season Super Bowl odds to win a title, they were actually 60-to-1 and only the seventh worst preseason odds to hoist the Lombardi. The 1999 version of the team they beat for the Super Bowl that year, the St. Louis Rams, claim the honor for biggest pre-season Super Bowl longshot to win it all.
For historical context, the Rams of the late ‘90's were bad. Awful. Turrrible, as Charles Barkley would say. Their star free-agent QB signing, Trent Green, suffered a season-ending injury before week 1, so grocery bagger Kurt Warner took the reins. What happened next? The Greatest Show on Turf and an unlikely Super Bowl.
8. 2000 Olympic Wrestling Rulon Gardner at 2,000-1
Remember Rulon Gardner? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Rulon was a Greco-Roman wrestler who went up against all-time great Alexander Karelin in the 2000 Summer Olympics. Karelin hadn't lost in over a dozen years, and Gardner never finished better than fifth in international competition.
So obviously Gardner captured Gold at 2,000-1 odds.
Gardner gave MMA a shot four years later in PRIDE, but retired after one fight. Karelin went on to help Russian influence the 2016 U.S. Presidential election.*
* Ok, he went on to a career in Russian politics, so basically the same thing.
7. 2007 Stanford vs USC
Dubbed 'The Greatest Upset Ever,' Stanford was a friggin' 41-point underdog to a[nother overhyped] USC juggernaut.
Under Jim Harbough's stewardship, Stanford won in the final minute 24-23 when Redshirt sophomore Tavita Pritchard, making his first career start, connected with Mark Bradford on a 10-yard touchdown pass. This was Stanford's first lead of the game.
Stanford and Harbough have independently had a good run of success since then. USC had one more season of glory in 2008 before falling behind the SEC for college football supremacy.
6. 2007 Appalachian St. vs Michigan
Ok, even though Stanford vs. USC is called 'The Greatest Upset Ever,' earlier in the 2007 season (Week 1), Appalachian St. REALLY shocked the world as a -33 point underdog.
Michigan was ranked fifth entering the season, Appalachian St. was a Division 1-AA team. No Division 1-AA team had ever beaten a Division 1-A team like Michigan. Until Appalachian St.
Michigan went on a spiral downward, eventually hiring The Greatest Upset Ever coach Jim Harbough to bail them out as head coach in 2015. Appalachian St. became a Division 1-A team in 2014. So it was kind of like the Circle of Life.
5. 2009 Kentucky Derby Winner Mine that Bird 50-1
Mine that Bird had everything going against him: a crappy name, good but not great bloodlines, no testicles, and 50-1 odds.
However, Mine that Bird overcame it all to have a fairly remarkable racing career. The gelding that was bought for only $9,500 amassed over $2.2M in earnings.
How surprising was Mine that Bird's back of the pack to 7-lengths victory? Even the announcer didn't know what was going on.
What Is The Worst Odds In Vegas
4. Buster Douglas at 42-1 KOs Mike Tyson
Now we're getting into rarified air.
By odds alone, Buster Douglas beating Mike Tyson in Tokyo, Japan in 1990 is far from the greatest longshot victory. However, it doesn't seem that way now.
Douglas was an undecorated unknown. Mike Tyson was Mike Fucking Tyson. He was 37-0 with 33 knockouts. He did this to other heavyweights.
Buster Douglas had nearly 7 years of age and 4 more losses on Tyson. Regardless, despite getting knocked down in the 8th round, Buster rallied and ended the era of Tyson with a 10th round knockout. Tyson was never the same as a boxer. Douglas was never again relevant after losing his next fight to Evander Holyfield.
3. Leicester City 5,000-1 to Win 2015 Premier League
At the start of the 2015 Premier League season, perennial relegation-candidate Leicester City opened at anywhere from 2,000-to-1 to 5,000-to-1 dogs to finish atop the table. In a weird season that saw typical favorites Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea finish 5th, 8th, and 10th respectively, Leicester went on an improbable run to claim their first Premier League title. Teams like Leicester City simply didn't win Premier League titles. And yet, they did.
Lucky punters who rode with the Foxes at thousands-to-1 odds were celebrating like Zlatan Ibrahimovic after his first MLS goal.
2. New York Jets +18 Super Bowl III
Again, it's not ALWAYS about the spread. While being an 18-point underdog is enormous, what the Joe Namath guarantee and New York Jets win did for the NFL and Super Bowl in general makes this longshot matter more.
Would the NFL still have grown to be the biggest American sport? Absolutely. Would their ratings still be improved with legalized sports betting? Absolutely again! But did Namath's guarantee and signature dropping of the mic #1 field walk-off moment help speed up the process? Maybe.
If nothing else, it certainly trumps his Suzy Kolber moment.
1. U.S. Hockey 1,000-to-1 1980 Winter Olympics
Do you believe in gambling miracles???
If you don't know the story of the U.S. Hockey team's improbable victory in the 1980 Olympics then you're either not American or you were born after Yo Gabba Gabba! went off the air.
But did you know they were 1,000-1 to win Gold?
From the improbability of scruffy college kids beating the best hockey players in the world to the Cold War importance of that victory to the absurd odds, there is no greater longshot.
- Appendices
- Slots Analysis
- Miscellaneous
Introduction
The following table ranks the Las Vegas casinos according to the looseness of their video display reeled nickel slot machines. The returns are based on a sampling of five different types of machines. The data collected goes back as far as October 2001 so the information is a bit dated.
Las Vegas 5 Cent Slot Survey
| Rank | Casino | Average Return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palms | 93.42% |
| 2 | Gold Coast | 92.84% |
| 3 | Sahara | 92.81% |
| 4 (tie) | Bourbon Street | 92.63% |
| 4 (tie) | Imperial Palace | 92.63% |
| 4 (tie) | Slots a Fun | 92.63% |
| 7 | Key Largo | 92.60% |
| 8 | Western | 92.57% |
| 9 | Ellis Island | 92.56% |
| 10 | El Cortez | 92.56% |
| 11 | Orleans | 92.56% |
| 12 | Circus Circus | 92.56% |
| 13 | Gold Spike | 92.55% |
| 14 | Fitzgeralds | 92.54% |
| 15 | Fiesta - Rancho | 92.53% |
| 16 | Arizona Charlie's East | 92.51% |
| 17 | Barbary Coast | 92.50% |
| 18 | Terrible's | 92.49% |
| 19 | Arizona Charlie's | 92.49% |
| 20 | Hard Rock | 92.47% |
| 21 | Town Hall | 92.47% |
| 22 | Longhorn | 92.47% |
| 23 | Riviera | 92.23% |
| 24 | California | 92.14% |
| 25 | Lady Luck | 92.10% |
| 26 | Nevada Palace | 92.06% |
| 27 | Plaza | 91.94% |
| 28 | Luxor | 91.92% |
| 29 | Paris | 91.92% |
| 30 | San Remo | 91.88% |
| 31 | Excalibur | 91.84% |
| 32 | Palace Station | 91.84% |
| 33 | Ballys | 91.82% |
| 34 | Las Vegas Club | 91.76% |
| 35 | Four Queens | 91.75% |
| 36 | Texas Station | 91.71% |
| 37 | Casino Royale | 91.67% |
| 38 | Boulder Station | 91.55% |
| 39 | Aladdin | 91.5% |
| 40 | O'sheas | 91.48% |
| 41 | Hilton | 91.40% |
| 42 | Boardwalk | 91.28% |
| 43 | New York New York | 90.99% |
| 44 | Horseshoe | 90.96% |
| 45 | Sam's Town | 90.89% |
| 46 | Santa Fe Station | 90.87% |
| 47 | Flamingo | 90.86% |
| 48 | Golden Nugget | 90.85% |
| 49 | Stratosphere | 90.8% |
| 50 | Tropicana | 90.71% |
| 51 | Golden Gate | 90.64% |
| 52 | Silverton | 90.57% |
| 53 | Main Street Station | 90.56% |
| 54 | Westward Ho | 90.40% |
| 55 | Fremont | 90.37% |
| 56 | Castaways | 90.36% |
| 57 | Monte Carlo | 90.24% |
| 58 | Stardust | 89.97% |
| 59 | Frontier | 89.91% |
| 60 | MGM Grand | 89.81% |
| 61 | Harrahs | 89.32% |
| 62 | Treasure Island | 89.32% |
| 63 | Mirage | 89.3% |
| 64 | Caesars Palace | 89.05% |
| 65 | Mandalay Bay | 88.87% |
| 66 | Rio | 88.72% |
| 67 | La Bayou | 88.26% |
| 68 | Mermaids | 88.26% |
| 69 | Bellagio | 87.42% |
| 70 | Venetian | 86.66% |
| 71 | Airport | 85.02% |
Excluded Casinos
The Suncoast and Rampart Casino in Summerlin do not allow playing slots and taking notes at the same time. I can not include any casino that prohibits the method in which I gather data.
Location Averages
The next table shows the average return by location.
Returns by Region
| Location | Average Return |
|---|---|
| Off strip | 92.07% |
| Downtown | 91.66% |
| Strip | 91.47% |
| Total | 91.74% |
The above sign can be found across the street from the Palms. Although I did the study Anthony Curtis published it in the LasVegas Advisor, which is how it become well known. The'...' in the sign encompases quite a bit of information,which was conveniently left off the sign. Actually the study only says that the Palms had the lowest nickel video slotsof the casinos surveyed in Las Vegas. The small print at thebottom says, 'Independent study conducted between November2001-February 2002 on Austin Powers, Fortune Cookie, Reel'em In, and Wheel of Fortune games. They left off LeopardSpots, and the study began in October.
Observations
There seemed to be no truth behind slot placement myths. Machines on the end of a bank did no better on average than those in the middle. There was also no correlation between return and proximity to such things as the main door, table game pit, high traffic areas, and low traffic areas.
Most casinos were very consistent in their slot returns.If one nickel machine had a return of x% then all others like it also returned x%. However some casinos did mix up loose and tight machines, most notably Treasure Island and the California casinos.
Methodology
A kind and anonymous source provided me with par sheets for the games in question. The EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory) chip is what tells the machine the order of the symbols on the reel, in some cases how the stops are weighted, how much each winning combination pays, and any other pertinent information about how much the machine pays.It is up to the slot manager to select which EPROM chip to order according to the return percentage desired. On atypical game there might be about 8 different possible return percentages, ranging from about 85% to 98%.
Each of the different par sheets has five sets of distinct reels. On video display slots the stops are not weighted; in other words all stops are equally likely. The distribution of each symbol on each reel is what determines the theoretical return of the machine. For example a higher paying machine may have more of the higher paying symbols.
On the machine itself three consecutive symbols arevisible on five different reels. By comparing actualobservations of results to the par sheets it is possible todetermine which reels the machine uses, and thus which par sheet and which return. There are various three-symbol combinations that appear in at least one but not all par sheets. So if one of these combinations occurs on an actualmachine it narrows down the possible par sheets. By playingenough the player can narrow down the possible par sheets tojust one.
To help identify the unique combinations I wrote a computer program for each game, which had the exact reel order of all 5 reels of all the par sheets. The program then counted the number of par sheets with each possible three-symbol combination. If the number was greater than 0 and less than the maximum then that combination was identified along with the associated par sheets it belonged to.
It is then a matter of simply playing the game and comparing the outcomes to the list of partially unique combinations. It only takes about 5-10 plays per machine to narrow down the possibilities to just one par sheet.
The averages in the table are actually an average of averages. For each kind of machine at each casino I took an average return. Then I took the average of these averages over the five kinds of machines I tested for.
Slot Machine Definition
There is some confusion about what constitutes a 'slot machine' or 'slot.' My definition, and that of most gamblers, is a gambling machine with either actual spinning reels or video representations of the them.
People in the gaming business and regulators generally refer to a slot machine as any gambling machine, including reeled slots, video poker, video keno, video blackjack,etc.. For purposes of statistics both casino managers and regulators combine all the electronic gambling machines together. For example, the Slot Chart in Casino Player magazine and reports by the Nevada Gaming Control Board do not isolate just reeled slots but consider all electronic games a 'slot.' Therefore my return percentages should not be expected to agree with those reported by the casinos or regulators. As far as I know mine is the only source to isolate just the return of reeled slots.
Acknowledgements
Worst Odds In Vegas
I would like to thank Rob Feldheim for helping with the slot play and record keeping. Rob helped me with most of the casinos on the east side of town and part of downtown. I would also like to thank par Sheet Pete (not his real name)for providing the par sheets, without which this project would not have been possible.
Internal Links
Go to slot machine appendix3B (Jean/Primm slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3D(Henderson slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3E(Las Vegas quarter and dollar slot returns).
Go to slot machine appendix 3F(Montreal slot return).
Go back to slot machines.
Worst Table Game Odds In Vegas
External Links
The main-stream media has covered this study in depth. Here are links to some articles.
Worst Odds In Vegas
- Turning'em loose, an article that appeared in the Las VegasReview Journal on May 19, 2002, about the possible effectsof this study.
- One-Armed Bandit or Robin Hood?, an article by myself for Contingencies Magazine explaining the methodology, results, and weaknesses of the study.
- Play by the rules and the one-armed bandits will still win. Boston Globe article about slot machines, in which my Las Vegas survey is mentioned and my advice quoted. (cache)
Written by: Michael Shackleford
